I’ve a strong suspicion that my 14-year-old daughter is unusual for her age-group, in her political fascination. She’s no interest in the ideological mono-culture spoon-fed to her generation at school but is exceptionally aware of the actual process and its personalities. We talk endlessly about the grotesque figures who currently hold the stage, none of whom she has much respect for. Needless to say, I’m intensely proud of her approach. I know from my time teaching how most of her contemporaries discuss politics by regurgitating indoctrination they’ve received on: Net-zero; ‘trans-phobia’; Gaza; Ukraine; you name it.
We were discussing what would happen to the Conservatives and Labour, after the election. A warning. Though we once analysed the various possible trajectories of Truss’ doomed premiership, neither of us got close to predicting her fate, the swift but under-discussed coup which dumped her. But then, which genuine pundits did?
So this is our forecast!
Much as the Tory party is in disarray, their two characteristics - utter ruthlessness and utter idiocy - mean those who do survive will be the blockheads who've thrown away the 2019 result: the Cameron 'one-nation' liberal democrats. They've been put in the safest seats.
The big question is: will they split off - and maybe even merge with the nauseating Lib Dems - or will the actual Conservatives (Truss et al) split off and form some party with Reform types? Either way, the Conservatives are sure to split. In the country, the first group are wildly unpopular. But the second group much less so; they probably represent about 80% of Conservative support.
Farage is thinking hard about 2029 and leading some genuine party, made of the latter. It wouldn't have the 'new party' problem of Reform, with votes spread too evenly to give seats. It would have a core vote of about 20% at least - and then a lot of Labour haters could be attracted. Farage is the most effective British political figure since Thatcher - not just for the 2016 referendum result but also how he succeeded with the Brexit Party, smashing May and ensuring her departure. Despite his haters, he's without doubt the most respected political figure in the country - and the only one with any record of significant achievement.
The real electoral poison for the current Tories are the Cameron/Sunak crowd, who have very little support nationally, though are over-represented in the parliamentary party. But they can't maintain the huge disconnect with the national party followers, who'll simply leave.
As for Labour, it won’t split - much to its cost. Starmer is already being pulled all over the place and is barely more popular than the completely unelectable Sunak. He’s probably smarter but will find that events eventually bury him. Constant wars will continue and possibly coalesce. Domestically, he’ll try all the gerrymandering he can (votes to 16-year olds, votes to anyone with a pulse or postage who’ll back Labour) and outlawing of free-speech, but it won’t be enough. Not least because the global political climate is changing.
The political upheaval hitherto seen will be dwarfed by events in the next few years. As a cynical and corrupt ‘Human Rights’ lawyer, Starmer will become a menace to what civil liberties we have left - probably locking up his opponents. There’s something coldly ruthless and monomaniacal about him. He tolerated extreme antisemitism in Labour as Deputy Leader, despite being married to a Jew and having Jewish kids. All for the sake of his career. Such a man has no principles other than self-interest.
His actions over the grooming scandal, as DPP? To persecute and prosecute those who highlighted this hideous scandal. Ditto for the trans-madness, over which he raised not a finger (until the tide turned) to aid the courageous Rosie Duffield and the few others in his own party - though he now lies and says that he did.
Obviously he’ll be given a very easy ride by the BBC, et al. But that can no longer be the comfort it was to Blair, in his early years; the BBC is now widely discredited and seen as blatantly partisan.
Much will depend on who wins the US election, in November. That will be Trump, unless (not unlikely) Biden has him locked up or even killed. But if Trump does win, Starmer will be in real trouble. Not least because of the additional credibility it will give Farage. By that time, Starmer will be mired in unpopularity and facing economic problems which make any spending promises from the July election impossible. The splits within Labour - worsened by the deceptive security of their huge majority - will make his position horrendous. His only option politically will be to switch all his focus to shrill and ineffective attacks on ‘the far right’ - in an echo of Biden’s demented focus on Trump.
The chattering classes will also go mad over the ‘menace from Farage’, which will be hugely counter-productive, as seen by how demonising Trump in the USA helped him to victory. Full-scale ‘emergency’ attacks on freedom of speech will be attempted, under the guise of ‘preventing the spread of disinformation and far-right violence’. Farage will brilliantly link this to the old ‘spreading alarm and despondency’ censorship seen in many post-colonial African dictatorships, with Starmer increasingly ridiculed by the many non-left governments in the EU and beyond.
Meanwhile, the British public - now suffering full-throttle wokedom - will inexorably shift towards his new party. Younger voters - echoing the move seen across Europe - will be a significant part of this transformation. The mismatch between politics in Britain and the EU will also hopelessly fracture the residual ‘Rejoin’ chants of the Remainers, who hoped to use economic disaster in the UK as an unarguable reason for re-joining the EU - itself now a fractured mess, far from their left-liberal fantasies of yesteryear.
Well, hopefully that’s how it goes…