In the waking hours of Friday 5th July we will have the answers to many questions posed during this election campaign. Prior to the announcement by Nigel Farage that he was returning to frontline politics, the main burning question was what will the turnout be? It appeared we were having another coronation rather than an election with the blandness of the party leaders not exactly lighting any fireworks. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Tice, all with the charisma of a wet lettuce. Recent by-elections were notable for their low turnout, though the media preferred to talk about big Labour gains rather than the reality of the absence of Tory voters.
With Farage came excitement, intrigue, real debate, as well as a boost for the acting industry. So, the questions now are numerous; will Labour still sweep to success? With what size of majority? Will the Muslim vote affect them? Will the Tories survive a potential extinction event? How many seats will Reform win and will they come second in the popular vote? Will we finally see Farage in the House of Commons? And George Galloway?
The real interest over the next five years, aside from just how much damage Starmer can wreak on the country and our constitution, is the power struggle on the Right. Sunak will be gone. Off to spend more time with his Moderna shares. The the first battle will be the Tory leadership followed by Reform v the Conservatives for leadership of the Right.
The Conservatives can either maintain the ‘one nation’ ethos or actually listen to the electorate and rebuild as a genuine small ‘c’ conservative party. The choice of leader will clearly indicate the chosen trajectory. Much will depend on the scale of defeat on Thursday. It will likely be a race between Kemi Badenoch (her recent anti-Reform rhetoric something of a hint), James Cleverly, and Penny Mordaunt. If the Conservatives had seriously considered their future they would have allowed Lord Frost to stand in the election with a view to becoming party leader. Realism and long-term planning fell out of fashion in the party long ago, so the likely outcome is ‘more of the same’. This will sit very comfortably with Farage, as a continually hesitant and confused Tory party is exactly the opponent he will enjoy putting to the sword.
Whatever the answers are on Friday morning, the next five years will witness a sea-change in our political landscape.